1 thought on “Repost: What’s the Worst That Could Happen?

  1. mcubedecon Post author

    Here’s my comment on this post from the UC Energy Institute and AB 32 Market Surveillance Group:
    I much appreciate the approach in this analysis, focusing on the range of potential outcomes and the drivers of those outcomes. This is how most policy analysis should be done rather than choosing a single point forecast that most assuredly will be wrong.

    However, I have an important reservation: It is not possible to place probabilities on future events that are embedded with “deep uncertainty” (see for example: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9701.html). Assuming that past events driven by complex, changing underlying circumstances (more reflective of chaos than a Markov process) are a good predictor of future outcomes is not a proper representation for policy makers.

    This analysis progresses towards a more appropriate presentation that focuses on the vulnerabilities in the system, the consequences or risks with those vulnerabilities, and proposing solutions that might mitigate those risks. But I think being upfront about an inability to place quantitative probabilities would be more honest.



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