Tag Archives: distributed energy resources

The 20-year cycle in the electricity world

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The electricity industry in California seems to face a new world about every 20 years.

  • In 1960, California was in a boom of building fossil-fueled power plants to supplement the hydropower that had been a prime motive source.
  • In 1980, the state was shifting focus from rapid growth and large central generation stations to increased energy efficiency and bringing in third-party power developers.
  • That set in motion the next wave of change two decades later. Slowing demand plus exorbitant power contract prices lead to restructuring with substantial divestiture of the utilities’ role in generating power. Unfortunately, that effort ended up half-baked due to several obvious flaws, but out of the wreckage emerged a shift to third-party renewable projects. However, the state still didn’t learn its lesson about how to set appropriate contract prices, and again rates skyrocketed.
  • This has now lead to yet another wave, with two paths. The first is the rapid emergence of distributed energy resources such at solar rooftops and garage batteries, and development of complementary technologies in electric vehicles and building electrification. The second is devolution of power resource acquisition to local entities (CCAs).
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Ahead of the tariff, U.S. imported 3 years worth of solar panels from China

1024x1024Panel imports were up 1,200 percent in fourth quarter 2017. That implies that installers were banking supplies to ride out the import tariff imposed by the Trump Administration. Unfortunately, it also means that the rapid technical and cost progress for panels may stall for that three year period.

Repost: Why utilities are more confident than ever about renewable energy growth | Utility Dive

“(O)nly 16% of respondents indicating integration is the most pressing problem. Instead, the election of Donald Trump appeared to have an impact on their fuel mix outlooks, with 35% of respondents indicating regulatory and market uncertainty are now the most pressing concern.”

Source: Why utilities are more confident than ever about renewable energy growth | Utility Dive

Fighting the last war: Study finds solar + storage uneconomic now  | from Utility Dive

“A Rochester Institute of Technology study says a customer must face high electricity bills and unfavorable net metering or feed-in policies for grid defection to work.”

Yet…this study used current battery costs (at $350/KW-Hr), ignoring probably cost decreases, and then made more restrictive assumptions about how such a system might work. It’s not clear if “defection” meant complete self sufficiency, or reducing the generation portion (which in California about half of electricity bill.) Regardless, the study shows that grid defection is cost-effective in Hawaii, confirm the RMI findings. Even so, RMI said it would take at least 10 years before such defection was cost-effective in even the high-cost states like New York and California.

A more interesting study would be to look at the “break-even” cost thresholds for solar panels and batteries to make these competitive with utility service. Then planners and decision makers could assess the likelihood of reaching those levels within a range of time periods.

Source: A study throws cold water on residential solar-plus-storage economics | Utility Dive

And then this…Trump’s energy plan doesn’t mention solar – The Washington Post

After the release of a study showing solar now employs more than oil, gas and coal combined.

Source: Trump’s energy plan doesn’t mention solar, an industry that just added 51,000 jobs – The Washington Post